International football tournaments are meant to be a celebration of global talent, where nations of all sizes can compete on the world stage. Euro 2024 aimed to pit the best of Europe against each other in a high stakes, high drama return. In truth, two games in, it’s all been a bit flat. Few surprises, fewer pressure games – and it’s all because of the seeding system.
The seeding system, which determines both qualification and the finals of the Euros, is heavily influenced by FIFA ranking points. These points are accumulated based on a team’s performance in recognised matches over a period of time. While this might seem like a fair way to gauge a team’s strength, it inherently disadvantages smaller nations.
Smaller nations often have fewer opportunities to play high-ranking opponents, which limits their ability to earn significant points. Additionally, friendly matches, which are crucial for these nations to gain experience and improve, are weighted less in the ranking system. As a result, even a string of good performances might not substantially improve their rankings, leaving them perpetually lower-seeded.
This systemic bias means that smaller nations frequently find themselves in “groups of death” during tournaments, pitted against multiple high-ranking teams. This not only reduces their chances of advancing but also puts them under immense pressure from the outset. The excitement and unpredictability that these teams could bring to the tournament are often stifled before they have a chance to shine. Before you scoff at it – just remember we’ve already had to sacrifice seeing Haaland and Odegaard’s Norways at these finals, or Isak’s Sweden because of seeding constraints.
How did UEFA try to fix this? – third place qualifications.
The inclusion of third-place teams in the knockout stages has been a feature of the Euros since the tournament expanded to 24 teams in 2016. This format provides an additional lifeline to teams that might have had a rough start or faced particularly tough competition in the group stage.
For Euro 2024, the best four third-placed teams across the six groups will advance to the Round of 16, joining the top two teams from each group.
Historically, third-placed teams have proven to be formidable contenders in the knockout stages. In Euro 2016, Portugal finished third in their group but went on to win the tournament, showcasing the unpredictability and excitement that this format brings. For Euro 2024, teams finishing third in their groups will be looking to emulate this success, knowing that their journey to the final is just as viable as any other team’s.
So where are we after two fixtures?
When I said there’s been little to no surprises I wasn’t joking. The third place table (above) confirms it. Incredibly dull performances from England, France – still yet to have a goal scorer at Euro 2024, Italy and Netherlands haven’t even remotedly dented their qualifications.
The teams lining up in third have all produced high goalscoring games and will be looking to make this third round of fixtures exciting and competitive.
Group A: Scotland and Hungary will play out a tense 90 minutes in a winner takes all clash. Goal difference, red cards, and goals scored are all still in play.
Group B: Albania and Croatia walk into the last round of fixtures needing wins over Spain and Italy respectively. It’s likely that both of them will struggle to qualify but one thing you can be sure about is goals will flow.
Group C: Slovenia harbour an outside hope of beating England, but in truth, it’s a very difficult task. Denmark play Serbia knowing a win puts them through. On a technicality, all four teams can qualify here. Let’s see what those Three Lions fans think of third place finishes if Slovenia can do the unthinkable.
Group D: Austria have looked good in the ‘dark horses’ category – but in truth it’s a tough ask to qualify here. With Poland already out, it’s likely that Netherlands and France could top the group with 6 points, which would leave Austria hoping goal difference works in their favour. Keep it tight, counter-punch, they have a chance.
Group E: Slovakia’s win over Belgium makes Group E the standout excitement of the tournament. The fact the seeding system has made it a fairly bland group on paper is a shame. Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine are all on 3 points – and they’re all capable of wins in round 3. If you want drama, keep your eyes on this lot.
Group F: Georgia promised so much, and they’r still in with a shout – but it’s incredibly slim. A tough final fixture against Portugal coupled with Turkey against Czechia means it’s probably a fixture too far on their debut in a Euros. I fancy Turkey to slip past Czechia, but who knows, anyone can turn up on their day.
Of course it goes without saying, no Euro finals would be complete without a seeded knockout round – they’ve always existed. It’s likely the driest England performance in living memory will be rewarded with a fixture against a third placed team. I would honestly put forward the idea that they do a fresh draw each knockout round, like they do in the FA Cup or Champions League. Bring the drama, bin off the seeding. It’s frankly boring.
I’d love to hear your predictions on who makes it through – and whoever they are, you can bank on me cheering on a third place team to go deep into the competition.
Charles, Monde Sportif x @chuckdavie
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